Iow-ait-a-minute

Clinton v. Giuliani might not be as inevitable as I first thought. Polling in Iowa (uh, hold on..?) the Democratic race is now a three-way statistical deadheat. Also Romney and Huckabee are crushing Giuliani on the GOP.(link)

That's almost interesting - until you know how Iowa actually 'votes' for their candidates. It's the most confusing thing in American politics since the electoral college.

Instead of traditional polling boxes, the Iowans meet at precincts - schools, churches, gathering spots. They do this every two years, but no one gives a rip until the Presidential 'preference' caucus. They vote, caucus attendees propose planks for their party's platform, select members of the county committees, and discuss issues important to their local organizations.

The Iowa caucus does not result directly in national delegates for each candidate, like just about everyone else. Instead, Iowa caucus-goers elect delegates to county conventions, who elect delegates to district and state conventions where the national convention delegates are selected. That's a lot of meetings. Bored yet?

The Republicans and Democrats each hold their own set of caucuses subject to their own particular rules that change from time to time.

Republicans pretty much have theirs in a hat, and the Democrats make it extra complicated, with gravy on top.

The Democrats sit in areas for their candidate.

Then, for roughly 30 minutes, participants try to convince their neighbors to support their candidates. It is not known if threats or body checks are allowed. Each preference group might informally deputize a few members to recruit supporters from the other groups and, in particular, from among those undecided. Undecided participants might visit each preference group to ask its members about their candidate.

Cutndapasted: After 30 minutes, the electioneering is temporarily halted and the supporters for each candidate are counted. At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are "viable". Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the "viability threshold" can be anywhere from 15% to 25% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least that many caucus participants in that precinct. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to "realign": the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or choose to abstain. This "realignment" is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike a primary) being a voter's "second candidate of choice" can help you.

When the dust settles, a head count, and then they tell the party... and Dan Rather jumps up and down and spouts blather for half the night.

There's a whole lot of stuff that goes on afterwards, but no one gives a rip about that either.

So the bottom line - Polls before the Iowa caucus in Iowa are completely USELESS!!!!