A new poll in Iowa shows a statistical dead heat in the Democratic presidential race and a big shift in the Republican race. (remember, dear readers, polls in Caucus states are meaningless!!)John Edwards leads with 24%, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 23% and Sen. Barack Obama with 22%. Edwards has the momentum since the last poll in early December gaining 3 points, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.
Key finding: Mirroring other surveys, Edwards gets the most second-choice support. When Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich supporters are realigned, the poll has Edwards leading with 36%, followed by Obama and Clinton tied at 26%.
Among Republicans, Mitt Romney has regained the lead as Mike Huckabee "has lost momentum and support, even among evangelical Christians who had propelled him into the top spot just weeks ago." Romney now leads with 27%, followed by Huckabee at 23%, Fred Thompson at 14%, and Sen. John McCain at 13%. Huckabee is down 8 points since earlier this month, while Romney is up 7 points.
Complete survey results are available for Democrats and Republicans.
(Original story here)
Now, here's a thought I want to share with you, that this "data" seems to be suggesting - What if the Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire turn out to be racists or chauvinistic pigs? (Shock! Horror! But DEMOCRATS aren't racist or chauvinists!!! That's the other guys, Cap'n?! How dare you!) Let's just say they are. That could put John Edwards up enough to pull in Iowa and also N.H.
I've been thinking about this a lot lately... it's against what Rove wants, and it's just wacky enough to happen. I can almost imagine the Iowa voters deciding at the last moment to forget the other two nice people and say "Let's play it safe and stick with the white guy."
If I'm wrong - I'm wrong. I'll owe up to it. -- It would be interesting though.
1 comment:
Racism and chauvinism seem irrelevant to this discussion. Studying the Democratic candidates (okay, let's just say the 3 front-runners), John Edwards is clearly the best choice. He has more experience than either Clinton or Obama, has the clearest ideas for the future, and is a very likable guy. Maybe Iowa and NH voters are realizing that they should support a candidate who is well-qualified, capable of winning, and more than just a media darling. If the Democrats are wise, they'll nominate Edwards. If Edwards is wise, he'll choose Obama as his VP. If the citizens of the good old USA are wise, they'll have forward-thinking Democratic leadership for at least the next 12 years.
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