Overheard Over Pakistan

Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan plans an emergency parliamentary session and will meet the body in control of Islamabad's nuclear arsenal in response to India's first air strikes on Pakistan since 1971. 

The two nuclear-armed and unfriendly neighbors have fought three wars since partition in 1947, and the majority of them have been over Kashmir — a territory both India and Pakistan claim in full.

The air strike near Balakot was the deepest strike into Pakistan from India since the end of the last three wars. It was a town 50 kilometers into Pakistan from the Indian border. There are competing claims about the damage caused. One side said it was a smashing success, the other says they didn't hit the side of the barn. Either way, the region is dangerously close to a nuclear war.

Have a nice day.

Iran Deal Tanks

Iran Deal Tanks

North Korean Nuclear BBQ

Lithium 6 on Facebook Garage Sale Site...

From the New York Times:

WASHINGTON — The online ad reads like something only a metallurgist could love: an offer to sell 22 pounds of highly pure lithium 6 every month, set for delivery from the port of Dandong, China. 

But it caught the attention of intelligence agencies around the world for a simple reason: Lithium 6 offers a fast way to turn an ordinary atom bomb into a hydrogen bomb, magnifying its destructive power by up to 1,000 times. The seller listed in the ad — who even provided his cellphone number — was identified in a recent United Nations report as the third secretary in the North Korean Embassy in Beijing.

Iran, So Far Away; Repeating History

In the latest sign of deteriorating relations with the rest of the planet, a group of Iranian protesters stormed the British Embassy compound in Tehran on Tuesday, chanting “death to England,” tearing down a British flag and ransacking offices, according to British officials and images broadcast live on state-run Iranian television. It's too soon to see if they're affiliated with the Occupy Movement. Bad joke? Sure. But so is pulling a retro 1979 hostage crisis. Been there, done that, right? Just ask MockMood. PS - There isn't a US Embassy for the "students" to raid, so I suppose the UK was the next best thing?

Read more

Grab some popcorn and iodine tabs folks.

Iran Downs US Drone

A member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Majlis (Parliament), Ali Aqazadeh Dafsari, said on Tuesday that the unmanned spy plane was flying near the Fordo nuclear enrichment plant in Qom province when the IRGC's Air Defense units brought it down, Javanoline.ir reported.

The official stated that the US drone was on a mission to identify the location of the Fordo nuclear enrichment plant and gather information about the nuclear facility for the CIA, Dafsari stated.

Earlier in the day, Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast had said that the country is installing a new generation of uranium enrichment centrifuges in the country's nuclear facilities to enhance the Islamic Republic's peaceful nuclear program.

As a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has every right to develop and acquire nuclear technology meant for peaceful purposes. Riiiiggghhhttttt.

In addition, the IAEA has conducted numerous inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities but has never found any evidence indicating that Iran's civilian nuclear program has been diverted to nuclear weapons production. Which means they're really good at hiding things.

But if you've got nothing to hide, why shoot down the drone?

And does the US need to give it's grieving mother a flag and a purple heart at the funeral? Even if the mother is an old IBM 486 Clone?

China On A Path

China To Boost Military Spending: Gunning For The US?

China is ramping up its military spending at a time its financial firepower is increasingly in focus after it unseated Japan as the second biggest economy in the world.

A Chinese official said on Friday the country will increase military spending 12.7 percent this year after a drop in spending last year owing to the financial crisis.

An analysis of comparative military capabilities of the world's leading nations will reveal that if China is going ballistic in efforts to bolster its military, it's certainly gunning for the United States.

Read more

Meanwhile,

China Isn't Interested In Curbing The Growth Of Its Nuclear Arsenal

China in June 2008 ruled out accepting any restrictions on additions to its nuclear weapons stockpile, the Sydney Morning Herald today quoted leaked U.S. diplomatic documents as saying.

Envoys from the United States have sought unsuccessfully on multiple occasions to obtain additional information from Beijing about Chinese nuclear weapons, according to classified cables obtained by the transparency group WikiLeaks. China has minimized what details it has released on its nuclear arsenal in a bid to bolster the position of its armed forces, the documents quote Chinese officials as saying in closed discussions.

Might also be relevant... India Increases It's Defense Budget By 12%

War and rumors of war.

A Weapon Of Mass Destruction Found In The U.S.?

A port official has admitted that a 'weapon of mass effect' has been found by 'partner agencies' in the U.S., raising major questions over a possible government cover-up.

The disturbing revelation came in an interview with San Diego's assistant port director screened by a television channel in the city.

The Customs and Border Protection Department tried to dampen speculation over his remarks, but doubts remained over whether he had inadvertently revealed a dirty bomb plot to attack the U.S. mainland.

Read more ....

Death Wears Bunny Slippers

Good post from the blog In From the Cold about Air Force missile launch crews, their habits, attire and much more. An excerpt:

"But before a missileer can unleash Armageddon, he/she must be properly attired: In a favorite missileer uniform patch, the Grim Reaper sits at an ICBM console, dressed in bunny slippers. In the real world, death wears a campus T-shirt, JCrew bottoms and the ubiquitous Snuggie. The silly blanket-robe hybrid is suited to the missile force, keeping an officer toasty while allowing him to interact with the weapons console unobstructed.

Missileers learn that on alert, comfort is as important as humor. One enterprising fellow liked to string a hammock between the two command chairs and stretch out for his long shifts at the console. Videogame systems are forbidden, a rule that was mocked until it got out that wireless Nintendo Wii controllers could cause the system to detect a false electromagnetic pulse attack and shut down.

I used to imagine that I’d have some sort of stiff-upper-lip moment should I receive “the order,” where I’d shed the Snuggie and slippers, zip up my flight suit, and make imperial references about “going out proper.”"

How's this for an awesome crew patch:

Virus Attack Sets Iran Back

The Stuxnet virus set back Iran’s nuclear program by 2 years

[Source]

Here's a quick excerpt:
Top German computer consultant said that the virus was as effective as military strike, a huge success; expert speculates IDF creator of virus. The Stuxnet virus, which has attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities and which Israel is suspected of creating, has set back the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program by two years, a top German computer consultant who was one of the first experts to analyze the program’s code told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. “It will take two years for Iran to get back on track,” Langer said in a telephone interview from his office in Hamburg, Germany. “This was nearly as effective as a military strike, but even better since there are no fatalities and no full-blown war. From a military perspective, this was a huge success.”

I'm starting to think that 2010 should be the year of the hacker. Between this virus attacking Iran's Nuclear sites, China beating the living tar out of Google, the Gawker password hack, WikiLeaks, the DDoS attack on WikiLeaks, and the retaliatory attacks on companies that are no longer supporting WikiLeaks (Paypall, Mastercard, Visa) or who were once supporters - Amazon, et all - I'm leaning toward making The Hacker the Man of the Year.

How I Learned to Love the Bomb

The Government has new advice for Nuclear Strike...(Hunker Down, don't run)

A problem for the Obama administration is how to spread the word without seeming alarmist

So, uh, what, precisely should I not be alarmed about?

Especially since this was floated out there on the New York Times - which is the unofficial second press room of the White House.

"The big surprise was how taking shelter for as little as several hours made a huge difference in survival rates."

Hey, that's super and I'm really excited for you nuclear scientist studying how a nuclear mushroom cloud will envelop my city or one where I have friends and loved ones... I'm a little more upset that you think that we have to talk about this. And we have to talk about it RIGHT NOW.

And another thing - if you really want to scare the living crap out of Americans - start explaining what and EMP is. Oh, they'll love that. No electricity, and even if you do get the grid back up - your iPhone, iPad and that brand new 3-D Sony Google TV are all fried. And even though you DID buy the Extended Warranty from the doppy kid at the Mediocre Purchase - it doesn't cover 'acts of god' or terrorism.

Sleep tight.

For further reading and to make sure you'll have insomnia to study for that last final - here's the PDF of the Citizen Corps Web findings.

Meanwhile In Iran...

Assembly Pushes to Oust Iran President

Iran's parliament revealed it planned to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but refrained under orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exposing a deepening division within the regime.

Lawmakers also launched a new petition to bring a debate on the president's impeachment, conservative newspapers reported Monday.

The reports of challenges to Mr. Ahmadinejad were intended as retorts to a powerful body of clerics that urged Mr. Khamenei to curb the parliament's authority and give greater clout to the president.

Read more ....

A Special Day, Petrov Day

Today is September 26th, Petrov Day, celebrated to honor the deed of Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov on September 26th, 1983. Wherever you are, whatever you're doing, take a minute to not destroy the world.

The story begins on September 1st, 1983, when Soviet jet interceptors shot down a Korean Air Lines civilian airliner after the aircraft crossed into Soviet airspace and then, for reasons still unknown, failed to respond to radio hails. 269 passengers and crew died, including US Congressman Lawrence McDonald. Ronald Reagan called it "barbarism", "inhuman brutality", "a crime against humanity that must never be forgotten". Note that this was already a very, very poor time for US/USSR relations. Andropov, the ailing Soviet leader, was half-convinced the US was planning a first strike. The KGB sent a flash message to its operatives warning them to prepare for possible nuclear war.

On September 26th, 1983, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov was the officer on duty when the warning system reported a US missile launch. Petrov kept calm, suspecting a computer error.

Then the system reported another US missile launch.

And another, and another, and another.

What had actually happened, investigators later determined, was sunlight on high-altitude clouds aligning with the satellite view on a US missile base.

In the command post there were beeping signals, flashing lights, and officers screaming at people to remain calm. According to several accounts I've read, there was a large flashing screen from the automated computer system saying simply "START" (presumably in Russian). Afterward, when investigators asked Petrov why he hadn't written everything down in the logbook, Petrov replied,"Because I had a phone in one hand and the intercom in the other, and I don't have a third hand."

The policy of the Soviet Union called for launch on warning. The Soviet Union's land radar could not detect missiles over the horizon, and waiting for positive identification would limit the response time to minutes. Petrov's report would be relayed to his military superiors, who would decide whether to start a nuclear war.

Petrov decided that, all else being equal, he would prefer not to destroy the world. He sent messages declaring the launch detection a false alarm, based solely on his personal belief that the US did not seem likely to start an attack using only five missiles.

Petrov was first congratulated, then extensively interrogated, then reprimanded for failing to follow procedure. He resigned in poor health from the military several months later. According to Wikipedia, he is spending his retirement in relative poverty in the town of Fryazino, on a pension of $200/month. In 2004, the Association of World Citizens gave Petrov a trophy and $1000. There is also a movie scheduled for release in 2008, entitled The Red Button and the Man Who Saved the World.

Maybe someday, the names of people who decide not to start nuclear wars will be as well known as the name of Britney Spears. Looking forward to such a time, when humankind has grown a little wiser, let us celebrate, in this moment, Petrov Day.

Cross post from LessWrong.

Now THIS should be what Nobel Peace Prizes are given out for. Not 'potential' to enact change.

US Plan to Bomb Iran. Bomb bomb bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran

The US does have a plan to bomb the living hell out of Iran...

Bombers, Missiles Could End Iran Nukes: Pentagon Has Plan For Attack -- Washington Times... not just John McCain.

A Pentagon strike against Iran would rely heavily on the B-2 bomber and cruise missiles to try to destroy the regime's ability to make nuclear weapons, analysts say, after the top U.S. military officer said a war plan is in place.

The missiles, fired from surface ships, submarines and B-52 bombers, would take out air defenses and nuclear-related facilities.

The B-2s would drop tons of bombs, including ground penetrators, onto fortified and buried sites where Tehran is suspected of enriching uranium to fuel the weapons and working on warheads.

I've been talking about this since the FIRST Iraq war... which means that all this report means is that there's already been a lot of saber rattling and rhetoric - and this is just some more of the same course. Economic sanctions has been the preferred route, the U.S. military option has always been vague and short of specifics - as it should be.

The current course of big talk will continue until Iran announces that they have enough enriched nuclear material to produce a small nuclear arsenal. Until then .... I expect more veiled threats and international posturing.

Israel Ready for War

Meanwhile...

Israel Primed For War On Iran - Netanyahu Deputy -- Reuters

HERZLIYA, Israel (Reuters) - Israel is primed for a war on Iran, a deputy to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday, in a rare break with his government's reticence as world powers try to talk Tehran into curbing its nuclear plans.

By spearheading assaults on guerrillas in neighboring Lebanon and Palestinian territories, the Israeli air force had gained the techniques necessary for any future strikes on Iranian sites, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon said.

Read more ....

Update #1: Deputy Israeli premier says country's air force is better prepared for a war with Iran -- AP
Update #2: Ya'alon: Israel capable of attacking Iran -- Ynet News

Sometimes you get what you wish for .... this is something that no one should have wished for. Unfortunately .... both Iran and Israel have been slowly gearing up for a major conflict against each other for some time, and Deputy the PM's comments on Israeli readiness should come as no surprise.

No Nukes On You

Obama has made limits on when and who the U.S. can bomb into a glass parking lot.

WASHINGTON -- President Obama said Monday that he was revamping American nuclear strategy to substantially narrow the conditions under which the United States would use nuclear weapons, even in self defense.

The strategy eliminates much of the ambiguity that has deliberately existed in American nuclear policy since the opening days of the Cold War... when we wanted to bomb everybody, mostly for lookin' at us strangely at the bar. So, for the first time, the United States is explicitly committing not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states that are in compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, even if they attacked the United States with biological or chemical weapons, or launched a crippling cyberattack... so noted everyone who hates America.

Now, this goes against just about everything America has done in regards to our previous foreign policy. It's what I lovingly call the "Crazy Old Man" foreign policy. For example, Ronald Reagan, who has - rightfully- been given credit for ending the Cold War using this strategy. The Russians were so afraid of the 'Crazy Old Man' that they absolutely had no way of judging his act as genuine, insane, just an act, dementia (which would have been the correct wager) or all the above, on any given Sunday. I mean, here's a guy throwing money at the military, talking about orbiting lasers to shoot down missiles, and placing mid range missiles on the German boarder - while simultaneously yelling to tear down the Berlin Wall. Crazy. So the Russians threw up their hands and said, "I hate playing Risk with this guy!"

This is one of the main reasons I thought McCain was going to get it for a while. If anything, just for another rendition of the Crazy Old Man foreign policy act. You know, our leader's more nuts than your leader kind of chess.

It's also a sad day for American Rednecks, as they will no longer just be able to offer their delicate foreign policy advice which has been a steady chanting of, "I say, just nuke 'em!" for over 60 years.

Old Jarhead's View of a Nuclear Iran

This was forwarded to me from a reader. Fascinating stuff, and spot on.

A Nuclear Iran

Below is my response to two articles sent to me by the Republican National Committee. Check out the articles forwarded to me below.

[The China / Russia / Iran connections Iran and the Elephant in the Room

The true nature of the threat is explained in this essay- The Unconsidered Enemy]

The articles are very interesting. I think the Reuters article is on target and the James Traub article is more intellectual and requires more thought to put it all in perspective. My thought is the Obama Administration keeps kicking the can down the road concerning a nuclear Iran while Russia, China and Iran plays the US like a fiddle. I don't agree that we have achieved any significant gains from Russia.

Here is my take on the seriousness of the current nuclear issue with Iran:

Neither China nor Russia will approve sanctions that will have any impact on Iran's nuclear program...sanctions will not work. Both China and Russia like to see the US tied down in the Middle East militarily and economically, while they develop their own high tech deployable military and further develop their economies. Considering our national debt and need for China to buy our treasury bonds, this Administration will not put much pressure on them. China is really in the drivers seat and will dictate their foreign policy objectives to the US, and sanctions are not in their interest.

I have a different perspective about Russia. Russia does not want Iran to develop nuclear weapons, but they very well may want Israel or perhaps the US to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. If this happens, the price of oil will sky rocket (maybe $400 a barrel) and Russia will benefit as an oil producing Nation. Iran has been trying to get Russia to provide their new surface to air missile technology, but they have resisted so far...there is a limit to their support. As indicated in the Reuters article, over a year ago Israel attacked facilities in Syria (potential nuclear facility being developed by North Korea) and was able to get in and out of Syria undetected. Iran has the same missile defense system and they know they are vulnerable.

I agree with the Reuters article that the reported additional nuclear facilities in Iran probably will not happen anytime soon, but you should never underestimate clandestine support and their ability to construct them.

Ahmadinejad often talks about the 13th Mahdi, and the Mahdi will return to earth when there is absolute chaos. When this occurs, infidels will be killed and Muslims will rule the world. A logical thinking person would find this to be an absurd concept, but we are dealing with a sociopath and religious cult who believes this can happen. I believe he thinks the only way to create total chaos is from nuclear weapons. This is why a nuclear Iran is so dangerous not only to Israel, but to the world. There are many ways they could employ nuclear weapons: man packed carried across borders; surface detonation via missiles, and electronic magnetic pulse (EMP) from atmospheric nuclear detonation. Iran recently launched a satellite into orbit with a missile so we now know they have the capability to strike the US, but I don't think this would be their option, as it would be detected. A man packed nuclear weapon is the easiest way to deploy nuclear weapons and it would be very difficult to determine if Iran provided such weapons to terrorists. The most devastating would be through EMP. This can be done with just a simple SCUD missile fired from a cargo ship off the coast of the US or any Nation. The ship would then be destroyed and it would be hard to determine who was responsible. Nuclear weapons exploded in the atmosphere would destroy all electronics...nothing would work. Electronic grids, cars, trucks, phones, hospital equipment would no longer work. Food could not be delivered, and those on medications and life saving equipment would perish very quickly. Perhaps only a small percentage of the population would survive. You don't hear much about EMP in the news, but it is for real and many other countries have this capability. Iran is the real threat though.

The issue is what is the Obama Administration doing about this potential devastating threat? Essentially, they are pursuing diplomatic efforts to obtain sanctions. They are playing nice with rogue countries and hoping this will all go away. I think Obama, Clinton and his extremist Czars are both naïve and stupid about foreign affairs and overall implications of having a nuclear Iran. Should Iran finally develop nuclear weapons, this will impact the balance of power in the Middle East and will likely result in nuclear proliferation by other Middle Eastern countries.

This Administration is trying to appease Israel by establishing deadlines for Iran to stop their nuclear program, but Iran just keeps marching on. Israel probably feels they have no choice but to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. This will be a very difficult task for them if they use conventional weapons and the Iranian nuclear facilities are deep underground. It would take a specific type of MOPP bomb to penetrate these sites, and it is unknown if the US ever gave them any. If so, it was done during the Bush Presidency. Israel just announced their new very large drone aircraft, which could provide many operational advantages. If Israel decides to bomb these facilities, then the US must give flight rights over Iraq, so we will have knowledge and will be blamed along with the Israelis. Since this is the case, the US should take out the surface to air missile sites and boats that will likely mine the Straits of Hormuz (this would impact the flow of oil out of the Middle East). I doubt we will provide such assistance as Obama's left wing base will raise hell. Should Israel attack Iran, there will be a global economic impact, but I believe that is preferable to a nuclear Iran. A conventional attack would probably only set the program back a few years, but that may allow enough time for a potential coup to occur as the Iranian people might overthrowing the existing government...that is a big if! Israel should also bomb their refineries as Iran is the 3rd largest importer in the world of gasoline. You can probably count on the Russians providing them gasoline, but it would not be sufficient to meet all needs. Such an attack could bring Iran to their knees.

The other and more devastating attack would be for Israel to conduct an EMP attack on Iran, but this is not likely as the world would demonize them. It would; however, send a strong message to the Nations sponsoring terrorism.

This is just a quick take on my perspective about the Iranian nuclear program and the Obama Administration's failed diplomatic approach. When it comes to foreign policy, I can't think of one thing they have accomplished. They are causing the US to lose National prestige.

Geoffrey B Higginbotham
Major General, USMC (Ret.)

Sunday Comics: Week in Review

Ah the week that was. Snow in all 50 States - yes, even in the higher mountains of Hawaii. The bonus of it all is that the Federal Government was more paralyzed than normal: Federal offices were shut down for 4 full days. Snow obviously votes Republican
Meanwhile the rest of the country is freaking out about snow. And frankly, I used to laugh about the South closing schools on the anticipation of snow. But when you break it down, the folks down there don't own shovels - they don't even really know what to do with the stuff. There are zero snow plows and no salt or even a salt truck to salt one road, let alone a fleet. So if you're going to make fun of the Southerners in snow, make fun of their survivalist runs on the 7-11 bottled water and grape Pop-Tarts. That's funny.

Meanwhile, the owners of Toyota vehicles and stock didn't have a good week. That's two in a row. And the media and government seem to be extra probing into this story - mainly because the media are all Toyota owners, and the government needs to sell more GM products. If I'm not kidding, prove me wrong. It does seem that Toyota might have held off such a recall until they had to... but I always think about Fight Club. The narrator (Edward Norton) was an automobile company employee who travels to accident sites to perform product recall cost appraisals. There was a magic number of deaths before they'd issue a recall. I'm thinking the number wasn't high enough.
Iran. I ran so far away. They're giving Mr. Obama's open hand of friendship the middle finger. The Iranian government executed some protesters, tear gassed the rest, and told the world they've enriched uranium. Mr. Obama's open hand has failed to end Iran's human rights abuses and also their nuclear ambitions. The response from the US? Go right back to George Bush styled sanctions. No hope. Zero change.
Speaking of zero hope. How about that NASA program. Looks like the 60's are finally over. Unless there's a great profit motive to get there for a US corporation, it looks like the next man on the moon will be a Chinese citizen. Which is fine, except I fear it'll be a Chinese soldier - and he'll be aiming missiles back at the blue planet where he came from.
Sarah Palin wrote some crib notes on her hand. Obama supporters were quick to make fun of her. I'd like to point out that her other hand was stretched out with a purse full of cash. Her profit motive to leave her office and hijack the tea-bag movement, and ultimately the GOP - should be much more troubling then her short term memory of talking points. Both ideologies should be concerned.Speaking of the Tea Baggers [and again, guys, you HAVE to pick a new name!] they've been called the Know-Nothings. This is extremely dangerous and has connotations that are even more dangerous. I prefer the cartoon's description that these folks are Libertarian in heart - and they feel that the Federal, State and Local governments were the right size before. Gigantic, and with all kinds of programs that they like - but they don't want to see it get any bigger. And as their States and Local governments are crying poor, raising taxes to support programs and pensions that they cannot possibly fund - the government is getting larger and spending even more - with money it doesn't have. This is where their anger stems. It's not because Mrs. Pelosi is a woman or Mr. Obama has tan skin - it's because Mrs. Pelosi, Mr. Reed and Mr. Obama aren't listening, and don't care. To dismiss the Tea Baggers as racist is dangerous because to ignore their concerns leads the movement toward radical elements and radical solutions. It would be much more beneficial to recognize their fear and anger. The alternative is President Palin... and if that's not scary, then we can discuss how Napoleon and Mussolini came to power.

Iranians Tested Peaceful Nuclear Warhead Detonator

Just read in The Washington Post; Western and U.N. nuclear officials are evaluating a secret Iranian technical document that appears to show the country's nuclear scientists testing a key component used in the detonation of a nuclear warhead, according to intelligence officials and weapons experts familiar with the document.

The document, if authenticated, could rank as one of the strongest pieces of evidence pointing to the Iranian effort to build nuclear weapons, said former intelligence officials and weapons experts. They were responding to a published report of alleged sophisticated research by Iran on one of the final stages in the construction of a nuclear device.

The leaked document published yesterday contained instructions from the head of Iran's research operation ordering scientists to carry out experiments using uranium-deuteride. The compound's only use is to detonate an atomic weapon.

But wait! Hold on! We elected Obama! His outreached hand and pleasant demeanor was supposed to eliminate the Iranian Nuclear Threat! Hey! No fair! And what about the National Iranian Assessment in 2007? You know, the one where the State Department said there wasn't an Iranian nuclear program - for sures? (I do)

I guess we'll have to let Nnetanyahu take care of it on his next turn?