Containment Out of Control

Straw In Iowa or Needle in a Haystack?

The Iowa straw poll is a vote by attendees of a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican party and dates all the way back to the pioneering days of 1979.

Anyone who can pay the $30 for the ticket and is over 18 can vote.

Participants do not need to be Republicans but they do have to be residents of the state or students attending university in Iowa. Or at least make up a good story first.

It is seen as a good indicator of who is in the lead to win the Republican nomination to become the party's candidate for the presidential election, except that, in fact it's only predicted the outcome in two out of five times. Other than that - this is big news!

So, with that knowledge - Holy Crap, Ron Paul came in Second! Bachmann's 4,823 votes narrowly defeatedt, Ron Paul, who had 4,671!

Oh, and Sarah Palin II got first... but RON PAUL, Dude!

And, George W. Bush, er, sorry, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, officially announced today to take the wind out of Michele's win. And Tim Pawlenty beat Mitt Romney who is playing Iowa like Rudy Giuliani did in 2007 -- meaning he isn't.

Plenty of Pawlenty

He's probably running.

The official purpose of Tim Pawlenty's visit to Iowa was to help Republicans on Iowa's fall ballot.

Sure.

No really, the GOP needs seven more seats to gain control of the House and eight pickups to take the Senate. Pawlenty promoted local candidates at each stop and left most with a check from his political fund... why else would he be in Iowa?

The trip came on the tail end of a carefully choreographed week. Pawlenty spent an hour fielding questions from political reporters in Washington on Monday and, a few days later, debuted a sleek video that recaps his modest upbringing in a stockyards town and gives his take on the country's problems.

Possible Republicans in 2012 include Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

"Let's remember, our rights and our privileges flow from our creator and not from our member of Congress," Pawlenty said at a fundraiser in Cedar Rapids.

They come from neither, Tim. And if you think that Tim's going to keep church separated from State - guess again.

Pawlenty is a member of a large evangelical church back home, attended services Sunday with a Republican activist. Advisers also confirmed the governor made an unpublicized trip to Iowa a few weeks ago to address a private gathering of pastors.

To assert credibility on foreign policy, he mentioned his recent trips to Iraq and Afghanistan. America needs to project strength, he said, criticizing the Obama administration for scrapping Bush-era plans for missile defense installations in Poland and the Czech Republic. Such decisions send "messages of equivocation" to American allies, he said. Sounds Christ like, doesn't he?

"We need to make sure there is no confusion about where we stand, what we stand for and who we stand with," Pawlenty said.

Pawlenty's concentration on eastern Iowa recognizes the importance of the area in caucuses. Republican stalwart Cheryl Kramer, who owns a bed and breakfast in the area, backed Romney last time but is in search of a new candidate for 2012.

She cut to the chase with Pawlenty, telling him before all those gathered in a country club ballroom, "I know you're interested in running for president."

Pawlenty let the remark slide.

"He's got the saddle and the bridle on," Kramer said in an interview later, adding, "He's a good communicator. He connects well with people. You have to connect with people in order to get them to work for you, and I think he has that gift."

You know who else was a good communicator? Yeah, that guy from Good Morning Vietnam. Think about it.

Guess He's Going For It?

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) will visit Iowa later this month to keynote the American Future Fund's Conservative Lecture Series.

The event, which takes place in Davenport on May 26, is the latest sign that that the former House leader isn't just dabbling with a run for president in 2012. No politician goes to Iowa by accident. It just doesn't happen. Gingrich's schedule reads like that of a presidential wannabe.

He addressed the Republican National Committee's meeting of state chairs and is also slated to speak at this weekend's annual meeting of the National Rifle Association in Charlotte, North Carolina. The organization hosting the event, Iowa-based American Future Fund, has been actively involved in key 2010 primaries. The advocacy group has spent over $1 million on TV ads in the California Senate race targeting former Rep. Tom Campbell (R) for his refusal to sign an anti-tax pledge, and has run more than $100,000 worth of TV ads against ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) in Kentucky's Senate contest.

Gingrich's Iowa visit, which would be the first of the 2010 cycle, had previously been announced in early March. However, he had previously been slated to attend only two events: the Polk County Republican Party's spring fundraiser in Des Moines, and a fundraising luncheon in Cedar Rapids.

If he weren't interested, he wouldn't be in Iowa. He'd be writing more alt-history World War Two books in his cabin. Or maybe alt-Korean war where Macarthur's use of nuclear bombs as suppressing fire on the Chinese kick starts WWIII. Just an idea, Newt. Run with that.

Iowa Caucus History

Although the Iowa caucuses are more than a century old, their national impact on the selection of presidential candidates is a fairly recent phenomenon.

It generally is agreed the success enjoyed by Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 gave tremendous credibility to the caucuses, although they did receive passing attention during George McGovern's candidacy in 1972, when the South Dakota Democrat finished second to Edward Muskie but later won the party's nomination.

Although Carter didn't receive a majority of the support in the 1976 Democratic caucuses, his 27.7 percent showing was the highest among five Democratic candidates. His performance captured national attention, putting him on the road to the nomination.


Republicans paid comparatively little heed to the caucuses in 1976, although a straw poll was conducted at 62 sites, involving less than 600 participants. Gerald Ford was a narrow choice over Ronald Reagan, 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent.
Results were remarkably similar to delegate preferences at the state convention: 52.8 percent for Ford, 47.2 percent for Reagan.

In 1980, with approximately 106,000 people involved, Reagan again was the second choice of Republican caucus participants. George Bush won 31.6 percent support and Reagan 29.5 percent.

It is acknowledged that Reagan's second-place showing in Iowa provided the impetus that eventually led to a successful campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

In Democratic caucuses in 1980, Carter topped Edward Kennedy nearly 2-to-1 and then went on to win his party's nomination.

In 1984, with Reagan uncontested for his party's nomination, he was the clear choice of Iowa Republican caucus participants.

In Democratic caucuses that year, Walter Mondale received 45 percent. Gary Hart was a distant second with 15 percent.

And if you read any of that - I'm impressed, since I was simply looking for a reason to post the two Howard Dean pictures I'd been holding onto for the last couple years.

Suck my caucus

Huckster beats Romney, while Obama routes Edwards and Hillary.

Ron Paul comes in fifth, but his supporters call it second.

Chris Dodd and Joe Biden both race for the door. Dodd actually lost to 'undecided.'

All my predictions came true - oh, except for Obama winning...

I called Edwards - because at the last minute I didn't think that Iowan's would have the nuts- ah, the fortitude, to select Obama. On the Republican side, it was exactly how I saw it - Huck, Rom, and McCain/Thompson (tied for third)

The best part is this picture. Enjoy. Hope to have a collection of 49 more before July. I hope some Boy Scout makes a big deal about the flag being desecrated on the floor like that. You know, a flag is to be destroyed if it has touched the ground...

Big Caucus Night

For the better part of three months, I have been hibernating for reasons I would rather not be public. Suffice to say, I had some readers of this blog that I was . . that could . . um. I had a chaperon at the after-prom party. A chaperon that does not approve or at the least will misinterpret (or worse, understand) some of the opinions that I have. But I can stay quiet no more for today is the first day of the political season. The Iowa caucus. The time to find out who will prevail and whom will wail. Sorry 'bout that, Mr. Dean.

Tonight Iowans will sit around in barns, kitchens and schoolhouse gymnasiums and decide who will get talked about most over the weekend when Americans rub the gunk out of their eyes and realize we are about to have an election. It is harder and harder for average Americans to decipher when the election cycle comes around. Part of this is due to the non-stop 24-7 dirty, evil, greed-driven, manipulative politicians that in our system and partially due to the schooling system that they have helped create.

In a tragically flawed method of holding a primary, the caucus allows voters to raise their hands to show support of their candidate and then change their minds if their candidate receives less than 15% of the vote. This is not the case for Republicans who opt for a more honest system of secret ballots and counting them however they feel like. The bottom line is this is the vote for talk. The winners will be talked about for the next five days and then Iowans will once again slip into the irrelevant and we will move on the the great state of New Hampshire until 2012 when we will do it all again.

My predictions for tonight are as follows:

Dems: Edwards, Obama, Clinton
Reps: McCain, Romney, Guliani

There is an old joke that I wanted to work into this but couldn't. What is worse than a cold toilet seat? A warm toilet seat.