What would it take for a third party to win an election in the US?

Dear Cap:

What would it take for a third party to win an election in the US?

I think there is obvious scope for a part that is socially liberal and very free-markety (economically 'conservative', though I hate that phrase). So pro-choice, anti-death penalty, anti-censorship, anti-affirmative action, anti-corporatocracy, low taxes, etc. Sorta like libertarianism with the wilder edges trimmed off.

If they can run on a credible 'clean up government, anti-lobbying, not business as usual' platform I think they would appeal to a lot of voters.

Yet I think it is almost impossible for them to have a real shot. What would it take for this to happen?

Another way to phrase this: Let's say the US exists another 700 years. Surely at some point another party will gain power. What do you think that party will be, and how will this happen?

snuki

Hey Snuki,

There's a misconception that a third party would/could/can't win.

But that's not how it works.

It would be more accurate to look at the American Soda Pop Isle in the supermarket to understand American politics. Almost half the isle is Coke, the other almost half is Pepsi. They each have a lemon-lime, there's a root beer and ginger ale... they both have diet versions, non-caffeine versions... a little something to appeal to the different tastes, but all sold by either Coke or Pepsi. Sure there's RC and a couple regional options, but they never sell well enough to have National advertising or exclusive selling rights in say, a school district.

Then, occasionally tastes and trends change, and the two majors are caught without an offering. Bottled water - orange juice - energy drink - and sugar cane products. [Evian, Red Bull, Jones Cola]

Moments later, Coke will have their version, or simply purchase the hole in the sector, and absorb the competitor sector of sugared drink/water product. Once on board, it's offered under their label, bottles and [the most important here] their distributors. It's difficult for a small independent bottler to have reliable and mass distribution that Coke or Pepsi offer. The ideas and platforms brought by an outsider are quickly absorbed into the larger company.

Immediately following, Pepsi will counter with their offering.

Then the trend changes, and suddenly it's vitamin-lemon water... HFCS free cola... and Coke and Pepsi quickly court the new product, or simply make their own version as quickly as they can.

And just remember, these are fizzy water products that will kill you.

Interesting, but I don't think the analogy works all the way. Pepsi can add a product without losing the original product. The Reps cannot go pro-choice but also keep their 'anti-abortion' product.

There is a limit to what a party can adopt that you don't have with commercial products.

To answer your original idea though, it has to start on the ground floor with the school districts and local elections. County and State, Reps and Senators - Then the big prizes of Federal Congress and President. That doesn't happen overnight, and has been made VERY difficult by the two ruling parties.

It's gerrymandering that keeps the same people in power. You take that away, and maybe you'll have real debate and challenges at the local level.

And if you only want to change one thing - like your stance on a war or abortion, it can be done in an election cycle -- which is plenty of time for either Pepsi or Coke to take that away.