The Case of President McCain

McCain could win it by a slim margin.

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1%

I've read a scenario where the House will have to select the President - and the House will elect Obama - but in the Senate, Joe Lieberman (reminder he's the "Independent" from Connecticut) would cast the tie breaking vote for Vice President, and then you'd have Sarah Palin as the VeeP.

What I like about that story is that it's got a Nightmare outcome for both sides of this election. When everybody is miserable is when I'm the happiest.

But there's still that game board from 2004. Not a lot has changed since then. Maybe Colorado? But your 'bitter gun clingers' and fundies out there coming out to McCain and Palin rallies. Oh, you haven't heard of that? I can't believe you haven't heard how close the race still is? Sarah Palin's awkward, white-girl-at-nightclub dancing stint on SNL gave that lame ass show it's highest rating in 14 years. (link to data)

The margin of error in the polls, plus the Bradley effect (6 points off for African candidates in polls if there's a live person asking) give McCain a pubic hair of a chance in this thing. Young folks don't vote - but Nursing homes do. And they'd be electing one of their own.

And all this in spite of McCain running one of the worst political campaigns since... uh, maybe Al Gore? Bob Dole? One of the four guys who ran against FDR, right? I'll just pick one... Wendell Willkie. (Perhaps McCain voted for him?)

So why, how, could McCain possibly on win? Because when those churches, grade school cafeterias and libraries open their doors, the bitter clingers will show up, the old folks will show up, the folks who tuned in to see Gov. Palin's SNL what-have-you will show up. One of ten women who supported Hillary because she isn't a penis-American will show up. They're also going to know how to punch a chad through all the way through a ballot, unlike the folks in Miami Dade County. These folks are registered and have voted before. They know where their polling place is. They don't ask questions holding up the line.

Why are they voting McCain?

Not exactly "for" McCain - He's just the anti-Obama vote. Just like John Kerry was the anti-Bush vote. But Kerry only had one issue. It came down to the war in '04. Now it's a whole can of garbage with a race card on the bottom of the pile.

But why McCain? The McCain voter is taking a measured look at the policy differences between the two candidates. Obama's voting records show he is for abortion, John McCain is not . This issue still means a lot to a large number of people. There are a lot of people who are voting on one issue only. And this still seems to be a pretty big one. Gun control is another. Drilling for oil in Alaska seems to have energized a few people here and there.

A large number of McCain voters believe that the United States needs to finish the wars that were started in Iraq and Afghanistan. They also think that the US needs to show Russia, China and Iran that we've got a new crazy old man in charge who's even more unstable than the cowboy before him. It's foreign policy like that what won the Cold War. If you focus on the 10-point lead McCain has on national security and terrorism -- it is the only remaining issue all voters believe the Republican candidate would be more adept at handling.

Some people are voting for McCain's promise to make the Bush Tax Cuts permanent. Joe the Plumber, for instance?

They won't be picking McCain to save the economy - which is what took the wind out of his sails in the first place. However, they might be picking McCain to keep a free market system? Maybe they're the folks who read all of Atlas Shrugged? All five of them?

Maybe it'll be the large number of people who fear Change. These are the kind of people who lose their car keys... or can't remember that their favorite TV show moved to Tuesday nights, five years ago.

Some people will be voting for a Democrat to serve them in the Congress - but they'll pick the Republican (no matter what) to offer a 'balance' in their votes. This actually happens! It's a sort of balanced scorecard philosophy. More like Damned if you Do, Damned if you Don't, if you ask me.

The McCain Administration.

How does he do it? I don't know, let's say McCain shows up with Bin Laden's head on a stake at a press conference or something? There will be an awkward hand-off of the White House keys from W. Bush to McCain that'll make the Bush I hand-off to Bill Clinton look down right civil.

Immediately the lack of McCain's ability to lead will slam into the almost veto proof Congress. He'll still have some old friends there, but since he hasn't been helpful for Republican candidates - and neither has lame duck George Bush - his party won't be able to negotiate or have any pull at all. Plus his old "friends" will come in with a huge chip on their shoulders about Obama losing. And they'll be out to stop McCain's Administration and exact revenge through him.

If Obama were to lose by the Electoral College - look for the Congress start exploring the idea of Amending the Constitution. Nothing will actually get done, but it'll play great with the home crowds, especially if there's a lopsided popular vote victory for Obama.

Gridlock. Complete, total Friday Afternoon, Accident with Gaper's Delay...
Gridlock in D.C.

Meanwhile anything and everything McCain said he'd do with the legislature is either in jeopardy or D.O.A. Anything he says will be shut down - any Supreme Court nominees are instantly rejected before or during the hearings. Since he can't move his arms, he won't be able to take up golf. I have a feeling he'll be flying on Air Force One a lot, brooding while traveling to foreign countries.

The economy will sputter and start, and it'll be a lot like what's going on now - tons of uncertainty and a lot of roller coaster starts and slowdowns. Both teams wave fingers. No accountability for any of it.

The word 'Palin' will become a verb for what people with Blackberries do when they're constantly waiting and checking to see if an important message has shown up.